|
|
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Прогноз цены на сырую нефть на 2010 год от
43 аналитиков крупнейших
иностранных компаний.
(Исследование The Wall Street Journal)
|
|
Аналитик |
Организация |
Прогноз на дату |
|
31.12 2009 |
30.06. 2010 |
31.12. 2010 |
|
1 |
Paul
Ashworth |
Capital Economics |
60,00 |
60,00 |
60,00 |
|
2 |
Nariman Behravesh |
IHS
Global Insight |
75,00 |
66,00 |
72,00 |
|
3 |
Ram
Bhagavatula |
Combinatorics Capital |
60,00 |
45,00 |
50,00 |
|
4 |
Jay
Brinkmann |
Mortgage Bankers Association |
83,00 |
86,00 |
89,00 |
|
5 |
Joseph
Carson |
AllianceBernstein |
72,00 |
75,00 |
75,00 |
|
6 |
Mike
Cosgrove |
Econoclast |
75,00 |
75,00 |
85,00 |
|
7 |
Lou
Crandall |
Wrightson ICAP |
75,00 |
80,00 |
85,00 |
|
8 |
J.
Dewey Daane |
Vanderbilt University |
70,00 |
65,00 |
65,00 |
|
9 |
Richard DeKaser |
Woodley Park Research |
81,10 |
75,48 |
73,32 |
|
10 |
Douglas Duncan |
Fannie
Mae |
75,00 |
77,00 |
79,00 |
|
11 |
Brian Fabbri
Maria Fiorini |
BNP
Paribas |
70,00 |
65,00 |
75,00 |
|
12 |
Ramirez/Joshua Shapiro |
MFR,
Inc. |
70,00 |
70,00 |
75,00 |
|
13 |
Stephen Gallagher |
Societe Generale |
75,00 |
75,00 |
80,00 |
|
14 |
Ethan
Harris |
Bank
of America Securities-Merrill Lynch |
80,00 |
83,00 |
84,00 |
|
15 |
Jan
Hatzius |
Goldman Sachs & Co. |
80,00 |
90,00 |
95,00 |
|
16 |
Tracy
Herrick |
The
Private Bank |
84,00 |
95,00 |
110,00 |
|
17 |
Stuart
Hoffman |
PNC
Financial Services Group |
78,00 |
70,00 |
80,00 |
|
18 |
William B. Hummer |
Wayne
Hummer Investments LLC |
75,00 |
78,00 |
79,00 |
|
19 |
Dana
Johnson |
Comerica Bank |
65,00 |
85,00 |
70,00 |
|
20 |
Kurt
Karl |
Swiss
Re |
70,00 |
70,00 |
70,00 |
|
21 |
Bruce
Kasman |
JP
Morgan Chase & Co. |
75,00 |
70,00 |
75,00 |
|
22 |
John
Lonski |
Moody's Investors Service |
75,00 |
78,00 |
78,00 |
|
23 |
Dean
Maki |
Barclays Capital |
78,30 |
80,70 |
82,80 |
|
24 |
David
Malpass |
Encima
Global LLC |
75,00 |
60,00 |
60,00 |
|
25 |
Jim
Meil |
Eaton
Corp. |
80,00 |
82,00 |
78,00 |
|
26 |
Mark
Nielson, Ph. D. |
MacroEcon Global Advisors |
75,00 |
63,00 |
52,00 |
|
27 |
Michael P. Niemira |
International Council of Shopping Centers |
75,00 |
85,00 |
80,00 |
|
28 |
Nicholas S. Perna |
Perna
Associates |
71,00 |
67,00 |
72,00 |
|
29 |
Joel
Prakken/ Chris Varvares |
Macroeconomic Advisers |
77,00 |
81,00 |
82,70 |
|
30 |
Arun
Raha |
Economic and Revenue Forecast Council |
80,00 |
84,00 |
86,00 |
|
31 |
David
Resler |
Nomura
Securities International Inc. |
82,00 |
85,00 |
85,00 |
|
32 |
John
Silvia |
Wells
Fargo & Co. |
77,27 |
82,00 |
79,00 |
|
33 |
Allen
Sinai |
Decision Economics Inc. |
84,00 |
100,00 |
122,00 |
|
34 |
James
F. Smith |
Parsec
Financial Management |
79,80 |
68,45 |
52,75 |
|
35 |
Sung
Won Sohn |
California State University |
75,00 |
80,00 |
85,00 |
|
36 |
Stephen Stanley |
Royal
Bank of Scotland |
70,00 |
90,00 |
80,00 |
|
37 |
Susan
M. Sterne |
Economic Analysis |
72,00 |
70,00 |
80,00 |
|
38 |
Diane
Swonk |
Mesirow Financial |
79,00 |
81,00 |
83,00 |
|
39 |
Bart
van Ark |
The
Conference Board |
75,00 |
78,00 |
81,00 |
|
40 |
Brian
S. Wesbury/ Robert Stein |
First
Trust Advisors, L.P. |
80,00 |
90,00 |
100,00 |
|
41 |
William T. Wilson |
Skolkovo Institute for Emerging Market Studies |
68,00 |
74,00 |
81,00 |
|
42 |
David
Wyss |
Standard and Poor's |
80,00 |
77,00 |
79,00 |
|
43 |
Lawrence Yun |
National Association of Realtors |
80,00 |
85,00 |
90,00 |
|
|
|
Среднее значение прогнозов по датам: |
75,3 |
76,7 |
79,0 |
WSJ
Forecasting Survey от 12.11.2009
Прогноз цен мирового рынка на нефть марки «Urals»
(долларов США/баррель)
|
Источник |
2009 г. |
2010 г. |
2011 г. |
|
UBS |
57 |
68 |
69 |
|
Nomisma
Energia |
57 |
54 |
59 |
|
Credit
Suisse |
53,7 |
56,5 |
66,5 |
|
International Monetary Fund |
59 |
73 |
77 |
|
ING |
57 |
64 |
69 |
|
World Bank |
53,5 |
61 |
64 |
|
EIA US gov. |
58 |
71 |
|
|
Barclays |
61,5 |
82,5 |
83,5 |
|
Commerzbank |
57 |
55 |
|
|
Morgan Stanley |
47,5 |
63,5 |
83,5 |
|
JP Morgan |
59 |
67 |
|
|
Deutsche Bank |
62 |
53,5 |
78,5 |
|
Societe Generale |
59 |
80 |
99 |
|
Raiffeisen |
58,5 |
73,5 |
90,5 |
|
Landesbank |
58 |
79 |
84 |
|
Cheuvreux |
53,5 |
63,5 |
68,5 |
|
EIU (Economist
Intelligence Unit) |
60,5 |
72,5 |
65,5 |
|
FirstEnergy
Capital Corp. |
57 |
73 |
84,5 |
|
Консенсус-прогноз цены на нефть марки Urals |
57,2 |
67,3 |
76,1 |
Источник; Прогноз Минэкономразвития на 2010 год
01.10.2009
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Цена на нефть, 90 дней (NYMEX)
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